New York, Beijing, Geneva

US IPO watch

Average activity on the IPO front in July in the US.

Two Goldman Sachs led issues Dunkin Brands and Francescas Holdings are up 50%

The updated list is found here.

ChinaDailyNews June 2011

Quite a lot was happening last month. Here is the short summary of the 10 most important developments in June. The detailed links to all the articles are on a separate sheet.

  • Sino Forest. Gazillions of articles. Reinforcing the discussion in the US and also in China about reverse merger listings.

  • Chinese internet companies had a rough month although with a better ending. Especially noteworthy

  • the developments at YOKU, RENN and SINA.

  • The IPO market in doldrums.

  • Jack Ma from Alibaba is making more noise than ever. Reopens the attention to VIE variable interest entities.

  • Chinese leadership active in Europe and at home. They offered a state visit to Sudan´s president.

  • The credit crunch continues. SME are in the front line. Real estate developers are next. Have a frequent check on the Shibor for the current level of short term interest rates.

  • Inflation keeps making headlines. Noticed that pork prices rose 70 % yoy and the very generous help for poor people .5 Yuan a month.

  • Environmental issues still keep coming. Flooding and more pertinent questions about the 3 gorges dam.

  • Bulls and bears on China got more arguments for their case. The same for overbuilding.

  • And finally the party prepared for the 90 year festivities. Retro   

Casino stocks revisited

Macao is boosting the sector.Try to guess which one is the pure play.

US commercial nuclear power

EIA takes a closer look at US nuclear power generation.

Nuclear power plants in the United States were primarily built between 1970 and 1990. The average construction time increased from 7 years for plants with construction licenses issued between 1965 and 1970 to 11 years for licenses issued between 1973 and 1977. Construction costs for nuclear power plants also escalated sharply.There are 104 nuclear units currently operating in the United States, ranging in capacity from 478 to 1317 megawatts electric (MWe), and averaging 971 MWe in capacity.

China Housing.Another angle on overbuilding

The so-called Chinese "Ghost Cities" have been the subject of a number of articles in recent months. There appears to be some truth in the reports, such as in the building of a near empty new city in Inner Mongolia (Ordos). There is also a good deal of hyperbole.

The controversy goes on.The Unconventional Economist with an update.

 

You can get the article with all the relevant links here.Another ghost city filled. And here.

By the way  macrobusiness.au is  a great source for interesting information about China.

Cleaning up

 

About Greece.

→ Washington’s Blog

The best quote on the Greek parliament's vote of confidence for Prime Minister George Papandreou - and thus his austerity plan:

"This is not a program to salvage the economy, it's a program for pillage before bankruptcy," said Alexis Tsipras, head of the small opposition Left Coalition.

It's not just Greece.

As PhD economist Michael Hudson said in 2009::

  • The giant financial institutions have already killed their host - the real American economy

  • Since they realize that the American economy is dead, they are trying to suck as much blood out of America as possible while the corpse is still warm

  • Because the American economy is dead, their plan is to soon jump to another host. They will ship all of their money overseas

And see this and this.

 

Not only Paulson struggled. Among the star names in negative territory are also Caxton Associates, whose main fund is down 3.38%, Tudor Investment’s main fund is down 2.25%, Moore Capital’s flagship is down 2.84% and Fortress has seen its macro fund dip 2.44%, according to the latest May and June figures from investors in the funds. (FT.com ) Add Anthony Bolton’s to that list .Here is his account of why his China Special Situations fund has tanked recently, contained in its first annual report. That contrasts with Ray Dalio´s Bridgewater’s Pure Alpha Up 11 Percent This Year [II]

 

Hedge Funds Increasingly Bullish on Equities

Hedge Funds are increasing their gross exposure to equities to a greater degree than institutional investors. The total market value disclosed and attributable to equities for the average hedge fund in AlphaClone's universe increased 8% to $3.2 billion in Q1 2011 vs Q4 2010. By comparison the total market value attributable to equities for the average institutional fund decreased by 6% over the same period. The S&P 500 returned 5.4% in Q1 2011.AlphaClone by Maz Jadallah

 

Steel stocks to watch:Quite an international list. Mittal (NYSE:MT) Steel Dynamics Inc. (NASDAQ:STLD), Haynes International Inc. (NASDAQ:HAYN), Kubota Corp. (NYSE:KUB), Mechel OAO (NYSE:MTL), United States Steel Corp. (NYSE:X), POSCO (NYSE:PKX), Allegheny Technologies Inc. (NYSE:ATI), Nucor Corp. (NYSE:NUE), and AK Steel Holding Corp. (NYSE:AKS) are all posting gains today. from Wall St. Cheat Sheet

 

After The US and China here is India http://www.economist.com/content/indian-summary If provinces would be countries.

Former Wall Street quants looking to start companies that apply the principles of high frequency trading to the emerging market for real-time bidding across online ads,” said Bryan Birsic, a senior associate at Village Ventures. 

Expansion and growth wherever you can find it. Google plunked down a $400 million offer for New York’s AdMeld, a lot of local venture folks were surprised at the price.

RBA sees no problem with financial investors in commodities.Not everybody agrees though

http://macrobusiness.com.au/2011/06/the-commodity-bubble/

 

China

From SCMP.com this morning some positive news on housing

Remember last year when the world was shocked by a survey supposedly from the State Grid Corporation of China which said that 65 million apartments were empty, fuelling concerns of a property bubble? Well, stockbroker CLSA has investigated these claims and says that the figure is bogus. After talking to 20 developers in 54 cities across China CLSA believes there are approximately 16 million empty apartments.

China preparing for a hedge fund invasion.A delegation of more than 20 hedge fund operators, government officials and representatives of business organizations spent much of Monday visiting area firms and at a reception at the Stamford branch of the University of Connecticut, discussing their desire to establish a hedge fund community in FengXian, one of 18 districts that comprise Shanghai .DealBreaker.com

At China Real Time Report, Stanley Lubman examines the “critical disconnect” between China’s national and local governments, its historical roots, and its consequences in areas from food safety tointellectual property protection

Law professor Wang Weiguo recently called for reform of land ownership in China, according to Caixin Online

The Atlantic’s Max Fisher asks whether the implicit pact between Party and people in China is unravelling

Forbes Asia editor Tim Ferguson, meanwhile, argues that serious imbalances are “choking” China’s economy and brewing social instability.

from China Digital Times (CDT)

Q2 earnings in the US.

 

EXPECT SLOWER GROWTH IN Q2 EARNINGS

Dirk Van Dijk, CFA, of Zacks Investment Research

Key Points:

  • First quarter season is over. Median surprise of 3.70% and surprise ratio of 3.03 for EPS, 1.32% and 2.23 for revenues. Solid growth of 17.1% (19.1% ex-Financials) reported. Slowdown from fourth quarter pace of 30.9%, mostly due to super financial growth in 4Q. Growth ex-Financials as 19.8% in 4Q.

  • Quarterly net margins rise to 9.40% from 8.73% a year ago, up from 9.02% in fourth quarter. Margins excluding Financials rise to 8.90% from 8.28% last year, 8.83% in fourth quarter. In the second quarter 9.96% net margins expected, 9.44% ex-Financials.

Please read the whole article at Pragmatic Capitalist http://pragcap.com/expect-slower-growth-in-q2-earnings

Daily China in images

The Atlantic  In Focus last month showed a great collection of photos from China titled "Scenes from China"

This collection is only a small glimpse of modern China over the past weeks. [48 photos]

Chinese short term intereste rates.

The pressure for small and midcap companies is gettting  worse.Credit financed construction will also suffer more.

Below the most recent quotes of Shibor.

Source:http://www.shibor.org/shibor/web/ShiborJPG_e.jsp

China property: FT takes a closer look

Chinese real estate is crucial for the health of the entire global economy. This map shows how the price of property has risen across China from 2000 to 2010.

Interactive map.

FT published many stories about Chinese real estate the last few days.Below are the links to the stories.

China land price fall threatens local finances

Beijing’s efforts to cool the country’s sizzling residential property market may be working too well. Local authorities are struggling to find ways to fund infrastructure projects - Jun 1 2011

Index of 100 cities gains ground

After China’s statistics agency abandoned the 70-cities property index this year, SouFun, a leading property web portal, has started to fill the gap - Jun 1 2011

Fate of China property is global concern

While official figures show 89% home ownership in the cities analysts argue that Chinese property constitutes the single most important sector for the health of the global economy - May 31 2011

Beijing’s ‘new deal’: subsidised housing

Beijing is embarking on a subsidised housing programme that is being described as the country’s ‘new deal’, designed to both ease social unrest and also maintain the rapid investment and construction-led growth of the past decade - Jun 1 2011

City races to meet clamour for public housing

The 3,000 families that moved into new government-subsidised flats in a suburb of Chongqing in May are the first beneficiaries of China’s largest public housing programme - May 31 2011

Recent US IPO Activity

 

Symbol Name IPO price   China/c CP FTD Underwriter
SZYM Solazyme 18     21.75 05/27/2011 GS
FSL Freescale Semi 18     18.6 05/26/2011 Citi
LPR Lone Pine Resources 13     12.87 05/26/2011 JPM
SAVE Spirit Airlines 12     11.5 05/26/2011 Citi
ACTV The Active Network 15     18 05/25/2011 BAML
YNDX Yandex 25     34.14 05/24/2011 GS
LNKD LinkedIn Corp 45     85.55 05/19/2011 MS
FENG Phoenix New Media 11     11.72 05/12/2011 MS
ZX China Zenx 6   x 5.8 05/12/2011 MS
NGL NGL Energy 21     20.64 05/12/2011 Wells Fargo
<--break->FFN FriendFinder Networks 10     5.36 05/11/2011 Ladenburg
DATE Jiayuan.com 12   x 14.19 05/11/2011 BAML
KOS Kosmos Energy Ltd 18     19.31 05/11/2011 Citi
RLJ RLJ Lodging Trust 18     18.12 05/11/2011 BAML
NQ NetQin Mobile ADS 11.5   x 6.04 05/05/2011 Piper
THR Thermon Group Hldgs 12     12.12 05/05/2011 Barclays
VOC VOV Energy Trust 21     21.66 05/05/2011 Raymond James
RENN RenRen Inc ADS 14   x 13.01 05/04/2011 MS
RPXC RPX Corporation 19     28.98 05/04/2011 GS
WIFI Boingo Wireless 14     9.74 05/04/2011 CSG
MKTG Responsys Inc 12     17.32 04/21/2011 MS
VNET 21 Vianet Group Inc ADS 15   x 12.7 04/21/2011 JPM

The complete list with charts and other links is here

ETFNewsSummary, May 2011

New products are still coming into the markets at a rapid pace. ETF Usage Continues to Grow...are making ETFs part of their portfolio strategy, and that’s good news for retail investors. With many innovations, institutional investors are often the first in. Later the retail investors follow. ETFs, however, have shown a slightly different pattern. PowerShares Adds Convertibles ETF to Lineup...the second ETF targeting convertibles.  Convertible securities are bonds that the holder can convert into shares of common stock of the issuer.  This feature tends to make them more correlated than non-convertible bonds to stock market movements. CVRT will try to mimic the performance of the BofA Merrill Lynch All U.S. Convertibles Index Credit Suisse Considers Hedge Fund ETFs...its top ETF executive suggested. Russell Debuts Slew Of Factor ETFs...broadened its ETF footprint considerably on Friday, rolling out a suite of ten factor ETFs offering exposure to large cap and small cap domestic equities. The aggressive expansion comes just over a week after Russell made its long awaited debut in the ETF industry with the launch of six funds offering exposure to investment discipline sub-sets  For further news on ETF´s please click here

CarbonSunset,May 2011

Starting a new monthly news summary in the energy sector.The main focus is on alternative energy developments.

 

Solazyme Prices IPO Up at $18, Raising $198M
...with Sapphire Energy, Craig Venter’s Synthetic Genomics, and a handful of other companies looking to scale up algae oil production. While Solazyme isn’t currently selling its algae in large volumes as fuel, it is currently selling algae-based specialty biochemicals, cosmetics and food supplements.  

Suntech Q1 Earnings: Flat Results in a Difficult Quarter for the Industry
...Yingli Green Energy (NYSE: YGE), SunPower, and even the mighty First Solar (Nasdaq: FSLR).  Shares of First Solar, SunPower (Nasdaq:SPWRA), Trina, and Yingli Green have taken a hit.  JA Solar, the second-largest maker of solar cells, expects the second quarter to be soft.  

More Spying on Elite Funds - Part 2
...energy and one of my favorites, alternative energy. But lately alternative energy has been getting pounded. Just check out this chart of one of my holdings, LDK Solar:Yuck! But I know the big hedgies are accumulating positions in this and other solars which is why I tell investors to do the same: use these insane selloffs in solar shares to  

CFTC Charges Traders Controlled By World's Largest Tanker Company With Oil Price Manipulation After Making "Shitload" Of Money
...wrongdoing in energy markets, said the scheme yielded more than $50 million in unlawful profits." The two traders, currently working at Arcadia and Pernon Energy, are controlled by Cyprus-based Farahead Holdings, a company controlled by Norwegian shipping magnate John Fredriksen who runs the Frontline, the world's largest tanker company.  

New solar product captures up to 95 percent of light energy

...of Solar Energy Engineering - Theory and Manufacturing Processes of Solar Nanoantenna Electromagnetic Collectors Patrick Pinhero, an associate professor in the MU Chemical Engineering Department, says energy generated using traditional photovoltaic (PV) methods of solar collection is inefficient and neglects much of the available

Why The Future of Greentech Needs to Sound Awesome
...array of energy technologies, from clean power, to energy efficient data centers, to smart grid tech to greener transportation.

The Art of Economic Complexity – New York Times Magazine
...or green energy. Strip away the mathematical language of economists, and conventional theories of economic growth are rather crude. Economies produce “stuff,” and if you want more stuff to come out of the process, put more stuff in (like human capital, say). Yet economies do not produce stuff so much as billions of distinct types of goods

 

For further articles please click here

ChinaDailyNews,May 2011

 

On The Possibility Of Understanding China
...Understanding China -- or not" and the other is "More on Understanding China." Both ask whether it is possible for non-Chinese people to understand China and both answer in the affirmative:  
 
“If China Doesn’t Solve Its Water Problems, There’s No China Story”
...the problems China faces, it remains more attractive in terms of investment than the “bankrupt” West. Echoing his warning in a recent Shanghai Daily interview, he claims that water is the one potentially fatal i
ssue confronting China:

China tops index ranking growth over five years
...China ranks first among 22 emerging Asian economies as the country most likely to maintain steady and rapid growth over the next five years,
 
The Chinese Domino Has Fallen... Or Has It? And Why No Power, May Really Mean No (Inflationary) Problem
...inflation in China, and the approaches ushered to deal with it, threatens to derail the global "recovery" (although not sure in what: printing of credit money - yes; economy - no) which according to Morgan Stanley is "t
oo young to fail."  
  10 REASONS WHY CHINA IS DIFFERENT
...in the China economic growth story and provides some good insights on the reasons why is he unwavering in this belief.  There’s been a lot of China bashing of late (by yours truly as well) so peering at the other side of the coin is often useful.  Roach elaborates
 
Vancouver, British Columbia, is consistently rated among the best cities in the world. So what happens when masses of newly monied Chinese all decide to move there at around the same time? Answer: Residential real estate prices that now exceed those of New York City.  
 
8 REASONS CHINA RESEMBLES THE USA PRIOR TO THE GREAT DEPRESSION
I wanted to pass along some excellent thoughts from Mark Lapolla of Knight Capital.  
 
China’s Rich: Status Is Out, Travel Is In
...In luxury China Leads Luxury Spending Ray-Bans and Oakleys for Chinese Faces China Watch: The Rich and Tasteless, Autos Losing Speed? To Lure Young, Burberry Goes High-Tech BMW to Show Plug-in Concept Car in China The rich in China are less status-driven today than they were five years ago, according to a study  
 
CHINA’S GHOST CITIES
...that is China’s economy on many occasions, but Bloomberg has a special running this week on the Chinese economy in which they shed some light on it.
 
Please have a closer look at many more interesting articles concerning China from the last 4 weeks. 
 

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