Fourteen Tectonic Shifts for Green from GreentechSolar First, the good news.The renewable industry will roll on. Solar grew by an astounding 93 percent to 125 percent in 2010 and the waiting lists for electric cars exceed the output. Washington passed the tax credits.The bad news? Competition will remain as fierce as ever. Here are some predictions on how the face and shape of industry might change. I’m calling these tectonic shifts because they mark how the roles that different greentech companies occupy will change. Plus, if I called it “Predictions for 2011,” you might just barf.1. Solar Will Become Like the PC Industry, Part II. Two years ago, we predicted that the solar industry would spread rapidly through better marketing and an increasingly horizontal industry structure that would allow specialists to improve products, reduce prices and make money at the same time.Overall, it’s happened. Solar makers have begun to tailor different panels for different applications. Concepts for cutting installation costs from Solon, Zep Solar and SunPower have arrived. DuPont, Dow, 3M and others have also continued to refine coatings and membranes.Now here’s the second part of the PC analogy. The people on top of the industry will begin to change. Remember how Packard-Bell and Compaq used to be the top PC makers in the world? Or how AST was once a dominant figure in the business market? All have now been chased to the tar pits.In solar, Yingli Green Energy and Trina have gone from the fringes of respectability to being producers of bankable modules with recognized brand names. In 2010, Suntech was suddenly not the only well-known Chinese solar producer.Canadian Solar, a Chinese-Canadian company, wants to be a top-five module producer in a few years, CEO Shawn Qu told me. There is no reason why they couldn’t be.Excellent overview on possible developments in the industry.Please take the time to read the whole piece. 

China and U.S. – Driving in Different Directions

...China Daily In 2009, China’s auto sales surpassed those of the U.S., reaching 13 million units (cars and light trucks).  This came as The Great Recession drove U.S. auto sales to a level far below the record of 17.4 million sales in 2005.  By 2009 U.S. sales had plummeted to 10.4 million for the year. Through November 2010, China’s auto sales r...from Credit Writedowns - 3:29 AM (15 hours ago)

Xinhua officially launches financial information exchange

...China’s official Xinhua News Agency on Saturday formally launched its financial information exchange, an information sharing platform in the financial and cultural sectors to promote development of the nation’s capital market. The move is also an important part of the nation’s drive to improve its financial information services. Approved by the ...from Tantao News Network » China Focus - Dec 18, 2010 (yesterday)

Tencent Is Opening As Promised, Further Thoughts on Chinese Style Openness

...platform in China since the very beginning. The good news in local web industry is that more and more people (especially high level decision-makers) have reckoned open is the future, but on the other hand, some Chinese philosophy behind the Open concept might be more complicated than you thought. I am not saying it’s wrong, but it’s Interesting....from China Web 2.0 and Asia Tech News, Open Web Asia - Dec 17, 2010 (2 days ago)

Why China suffers from labor shortages

...china-news" via China in Google Reader: FORTUNE — Even as pundits sharply debate China's economic future, most agree that much of it is riding on the stability of its working population. And depending on who you talk to, the Chinese labor … © CDT aggregator for China Digital Times (CDT), 2010. | Permalink | No comment | Add to del.ici...from China Digital Times (CDT) - Dec 17, 2010 (2 days ago)

Price War: 360buy Vs. Dangdang

...retailers in China are having a price war.  One of them is Dangdang, a leading online book store in China that has just listed in Nasdaq. Another is 360buy, the largest online retailer in China by revenue and the most aggressive player in the industry. (Here is an article from local media: http://tech.sina.com.cn/i/2010-12-17/00114993519.shtml.)...

from China Web 2.0 and Asia Tech News, Open Web Asia - 2:27 AM (16 hours ago)

THE WORLD’S INCREASING DEPENDENCE ON CHINA

...sheet recession China has become an increasingly important economy. While discussing their biggest risks to 2011 UniCredit analysts explained why it is not the EMU that worries them in the future.  It is China that most worries them.  And not necessarily because they believe a hard landing is coming to China, but simply because China is becoming...from THE PRAGMATIC CAPITALIST - Dec 17, 2010 (2 days ago)

10 People Changing the Face of China

...one in China will likely have as much impact on the country’s future over the next decade as the seven to nine men (and they will be men) who will be selected to sit in the Standing Committee of the Politburo in 2012. For now, much about them remains speculative—a ...Read More  from Big Think - Dec 17, 2010 (2 days ago)

Drumbeat: December 17, 2010

...China’s December Fuel Oil Imports May Drop 4%, C1 Energy Says China’s fuel oil imports may drop 4 percent in December from a month earlier, commodity researcher C1 Energy said. The country’s fuel oil imports may drop to 1.54 million metric tons from an estimated 1.6 million tons in November, the Shanghai-based company said in an e-mailed report...from The Oil Drum - Dec 17, 2010 (2 days ago)

MARKET IS OVERBOUGHT, OVERVALUED, OVEREXTENDED

...China and Japan are exceedingly high. The turmoil in the European Union is not a temporary crisis that will be cured with the wave of a wand. A number of the weaker EU nations are basically insolvent, and their debts, sooner or later will have to be restructured. The New York Times and Wall Street Journal recently highlighted the exposure...from THE PRAGMATIC CAPITALIST - Dec 17, 2010 (2 days ago)

Landfill shortage for Chinese cities

...Daily about China's landfills: More efforts need to be given to garbage classification, and measures need to be implemented to reduce consumption and trash production. Out of the 668 cities in China, two-thirds are surrounded by garbage and one-quarter do not contain landfills. The total area of land covered in garbage in China has reached ...from Danwei China - Dec 17, 2010 (2 days ago)

Looming excess capacity in getting you smashed and Chinese statistics

...In China they didn’t take to whiskey like the Indians. Instead they drink Baijiu. The alcohol is usually sold as a wholesale ingredient - and blended under lots of brand names. The commercially made (and multiple distilled) grain alcohols will be displacing moonshine for years to come. There is good quality growth there. Which brings me to ...from Bronte Capital - 6:44 AM (11 hours ago)

Geek appeal - Interview with Charlie Custer

...children in China.from Hao Hao Report - Published news - Dec 17, 2010 (2 days ago)

Economist predicts 2019 for China to pass the USA in nominal GDP

...predicts that China will pass the USA in US dollar GDP at market conversion rates in 2019 The Economist provides an online calculator for people to calculate their own date when China will pass the USA The maximum values are plus or minus 10% for GDP growth, inflation and currency appreciation. Over the past decade annual inflation (as measur...from Next Big Future - Dec 17, 2010 (2 days ago)

China Agrees to Intellectual Property Protections

...China Joint Commission on Commerce and Trade, did not address the thorniest issues in the economic relations between the two countries, like the giant trade imbalance and the value of China’s currency. But the largely technical discussions helped set the stage for a state visit by President Hu Jintao to Washington next month, officials on both s...from China Digital Times (CDT) - Dec 17, 2010 (2 days ago)

China Digital Breakout from Slope of Hope with Tim Knight - Dec 16, 2010 (3 days ago)

Taobao’s Search Engines, Designed for E-Commerce

...site in China, so obviously it has its own ideas about search. In fact it has started testing the water. Four search services have been launched recently: Taobao Search, eTao, TaotaoSou and the very latest one TuXiang which was quietly launched yesterday. Taobao Search is the major search engine which is integrated with Taobao platform for a lon...from China Web 2.0 and Asia Tech News, Open Web Asia - Dec 16, 2010 (3 days ago)

The Economist World in 2011 and 2036

...China GDP growth: 8.4% GDP: $6,460bn (PPP: $11,292bn) Inflation: 3.5% Population: 1,345.7m GDP per head: $4,800 (PPP: $8,390) Economist World in 2011 - India GDP growth: 8.2% GDP: $1,832bn (PPP: $4,508bn) Inflation: 5.8% Population: 1,202.1m GDP per head: $1,520 (PPP: $3,750) Jim O'Neill (chairman of Goldman Sachs Asset Management) looks a...from Next Big Future - Dec 16, 2010 (3 days ago)

He Told You Baidu was Overvalued!

...market in China (NYSE:FXI). However, just like with Google (NASDAQ:GOOG), this multiple will contract over time as the business matures and psychological hype floats gently to the ground. (See “The Baidu ‘Bubble’ Destroys Any Real Valuation“) It will be interesting to see whether Baidu starts attracting more sellers as the business cycle changes...from Wall St. Cheat Sheet - Dec 16, 2010 (3 days ago)

Fisking a China apologist

...contributions to China and his role in turning the country around. But it’s remarkable that he doesn’t realize that that pesky incident on June 4, 1989, will preclude Deng from ever being recognized as a global figure of peace, fair or not. it’s also a little odd to suggest that since the Nobel’s award to Liu Xiaobo created a lot of tension and ...from The Peking Duck - Dec 17, 2010 (2 days ago)

Thursday Watch

...China May Lift Rates 6 Times Next Year on Inflation, Mizuho's Suzuki Says. China may raise interest rates up to six times by the end of next year as inflation becomes more entrenched in the economy, according to Mizuho Research Institute Ltd. China’s central bank has relied on reserve-requirement ratios to help control liquidity, and with levels...from Between the Hedges - Dec 16, 2010 (3 days ago)

Two Industry Models In China

...business in China seem to be appearing every day. Last week, John Gapper of The Financial Times wrote a piece entitled “China takes a short-cut to power” that describes the hurdles that even large companies face in the country. As described in the [...]from Managing The Dragon - Dec 16, 2010 (3 days ago)

Are Electric Cars About to Deliver Electrifying Profits?

...he believes China (NYSE:FXI) will make and sell 40 million electric cars per year and the electricity for the car batteries will be generated from rings of solar power (not coal) surrounding various Chinese cities. Shai Agassi has accomplished a lot in his young professional career, but his ambitions have grown even grander. So far he has been a...from Wall St. Cheat Sheet - Dec 16, 2010 (3 days ago)

China Exclusive: China’s cities breed a new generation — the empty-nesters

...group in China, says Li Yinhe, a respected sociologist at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (CASS). A survey conducted by the CASS this month of 4,013 households in five big cities across China showed they accounted for 16.3 percent. “It is a universal phenomenon,” says Li. “The development of the economy and improved living standards enabl...from Tantao News Network » China Focus - Dec 16, 2010 (3 days ago)

Bloomberg: No Emerging Market Bears Unsettles Investors Shunning Conformity

...in anything China as they are becoming a dominant force" is turning out to be very accurate, but didn't stop commodities and Chinese equities from going bust in 2008.  Wall Street is excellent at taking a viable thesis, and overdoing it to a point of massive excess.  And then things tend to go bust; even if the underlying thesis is 100%...from Fund My Mutual Fund - Dec 16, 2010 (3 days ago)

The west’s Chindian nightmare unfolds

...Bank of China and other commercial banks. Ambani’s Reliance Communications meanwhile on Wednesday said it had signed a $1.93bn syndicated loan arrangement with China Development Bank and other institutions to refinance short-term debt it took on to build its 3G telephone network. The deals were among the first to be wheeled out as Wen arrived ...from FT Alphaville - Dec 16, 2010 (3 days ago)

China's US Treasury holdings close to 12-month high

...China's holdings of US Treasury notes and bonds rose by US$23.3 billion to US$906.8 billion in October, its largest position in nearly a year, the Wall Street Journal reported. Net purchasesfrom China Economic Review - Daily Briefs - Dec 16, 2010 (3 days ago)

Big-Picture Pattern Still Bullish for China ETF

...China 25 Equity Index (NYSE: FXI) right now. As long as the major up trendline from October 2008 to the present (26 months) remains intact, now at 42.00/05, we will be looking for another loop to the upside towards 49.00-50.00 next. Originally published on MPTrader.com.from Slope of Hope with Tim Knight - Dec 16, 2010 (3 days ago)

Rising prices just make China dearer

Beijing must address inflation's most disruptive effects. Attention must be paid to food costs and to capital markets: low bank savings returns encourage a shady parallel credit systemfrom FT.com - World, Asia Pacific - Dec 15, 2010 (4 days ago)

The Best Explanation Of Why Rare Earths Are A Bubble Just Waiting To Explode

...China (NYSE:FXI) does control 95% of rare earth production. But that’s mainly because it has the loosest environmental regulations. They are in abundance all around the world. Rare earths aren’t really that rare… they’re more prevalent than gold. And demand over the long-run is elastic. Companies are in fact finding alternatives to them. So bef...from Wall St. Cheat Sheet - Dec 15, 2010 (4 days ago)

Chinese Fortune Cookies

...ask about China’s foreign policy , trade and military convergence 1) How can an increasingly rich 1.2 billion people accept a restricted internet, one child policies, and severe political restrictions/ 2) How long can the Chinese respect for elders and ancestors be translated to a respect for the communist government? How do you measure the leve...from DECISION STATS - Dec 15, 2010 (4 days ago)

State of Things: What are China’s Top 50 Brands?

...secret to China’s most valuable brands, look no further than the Chinese government.from WSJ.com: China Real Time Report - Dec 15, 2010 (4 days ago)

China vows to be responsible in int’l rare earth cooperation

...reiterated that China’s decision to cut rare earth exploration, production and exports was made amid the government’s efforts to promote sustainable development and protect the environment. China’s rare earth export quotas were 30,300 tonnes for 2010, a decline of nearly 40 percent from 2009. However, China exported 32,200 tonnes of rare earths ...from Tantao News Network » China Focus - Dec 15, 2010 (4 days ago)

There’s More To Current Anti-Dumping Climate Than Latest WTO Findings

...cases between China, the EU and the US since that time [...]from MetalMiner - Dec 15, 2010 (4 days ago

Ukraine To Open Chernobyl Area To Tourists

Pickens writes "The Washington Post reports that Ukraine plans to open up the sealed zone around the Chernobyl reactor to visitors who wish to learn more about the tragedy that occurred nearly a quarter of a century ago. Emergency Situations Ministry spokeswoman Yulia Yershova says experts are developing travel routes that will be both medically safe and informative.

 'There are things to see there if one follows the official route and doesn't stray away from the group,' says Yershova. Though it is a very sad story.' The ministry also says it hopes to finish building a new safer shell for the exploded reactor by 2015 that will cover the original iron-and-concrete structure hastily built over the reactor that has been leaking radiation, cracking and threatening to collapse. About 2,500 employees maintain the remains of the now-closed nuclear plant, working in shifts to minimize their exposure to radiation and several hundred evacuees have returned to their villages in the area despite a government ban."

An alternative to overcrowded places                          from Slashdot 

Global boom in commodities capex

Global spending on mining will surpass pre-crisis levels next year, according to an emerging industry consensus, highlighting rising confidence in an economic recovery led by China and other fast-growing markets,reports the FT. The boom in capital expenditures, which extends to the oil, natural gas and agribusinesses, comes amid sharply rising prices for commodities such as copper, iron ore, crude oil, sugar and wheat. The investment surge also raises the likelihood of short-term bottlenecks in the already stretched supply of equipment and services, and project delays as costs rise. Global mining expenditure is set to hit a record $115bn-$120bn next year, above the peak of $110bn set in 2008, according to a survey of senior industry executives and consultants.

FT Alphaville by Cardiff Garcia

OIL IN CONTANGO OR BACKWARDATION?

Interesting to note that we saw these sorts of artifacts in July – August 2008 before we saw the brunt of the oil and equity market sell off…

DEUTSCHE BANK: PREPARE FOR S&P 1550 IN 2011

Binky Chadha, Deutsche Bank’s Chief US Equity Strategist is trying to outdo his very bullish calls from 2010. Chadha was correctly bullish at the beginning of 2010 calling for S&P 1325.  That made him the most bullish analyst on Wall Street at the time.  Chadha is trying to outdo himself this year.  He is calling for a raging bull market of 25% in 2011 with the S&P ending the year at 1550 (via CNBC):

 The counterargument to Chadha’s bullish arguments, comes (ironically) from his own bank’s fixed income unit (via Zero Hedge):

• 2010 was a story of expecting low rates, for a long time. We think 2011 will be divided into two halves. The first half represents a test of the low for long view. Is the economy gaining

• sufficient traction that rates can begin some kind of steady normalization? The second half will be the answer. We think that answer is a resounding no – low for long will come back into vogue. The market will re rally and once again disappoint the economy optimists.

• It is not that the economy isn’t getting better – it is. Instead it is that there are so many headwinds to work through, that recovery is not consistent with premature monetary tightening by either the Fed or the markets. Fiscal stimulus buys time in 2011 but little else. Ironically the stronger growth looks, the more likely fiscal tightening will come into play sooner keeping the recovery on a backfoot.

   THE PRAGMATIC CAPITALIST 

Summers departs

Summers decided to leave public service with a long speech recapitulating a lot of the economic themes of his tenure at the NEC. There are notable parts to the speech; I'm particularly astonished that Summers thinks the government needs “to make it easier to patent a new idea or innovation”, for instance, in a world where patent-trolling is rife and where Nathan Myhrvold can rack up a multi-billion-dollar portfolio of more than 30,000 patents in a very short space of time, any one of which could stifle genuinely valuable innovation for years. from Felixsalmon.com

Business Roundtable Releases Fourth Quarter 2010 CEO Economic Outlook Survey

The CEOs of America’s leading companies plan increases in employment, sales and capital expenditures over the next six months – according to the results of Business Roundtable’s fourth quarter 2010 CEO Economic Outlook Survey.

The Case of the Missing Gold

An intriguing if slightly scary article appeared on Mineweb last week, summarizing a number of earlier interviews and comments by gold market commentators and investment gurus concerning the degree to which gold on deposit in bank vaults actually exists. Or, as the article explains, doesn’t. Confusing? Yes, well, the situation is more than a little […] Source: MetalMiner 

Report: Trade Balance, The U.S. is a Net Exporter of Solar Products

First, here are the key findings from the SEIA report:

• The U.S. is a significant net exporter of solar products, with total net exports of $723 million in 2009.

• The largest solar energy product export is polysilicon, the feedstock for crystalline silicon photovoltaics, of which the U.S. exported $1.1 billion in 2009.

• 74 percent of the total value created from U.S. solar installations in 2009 came from the U.S. (despite the majority of installed modules being assembled abroad).

• Much of this value came from non-module costs and "soft" costs such as installation, legal fees, permitting, system design and engineering, etc.

• Primary import locations for PV were China and Mexico; primary export locations were Germany and Japan

• U.S. solar installations created $2.6 billion in direct value to support the U.S. economy.

• The U.S. doesn't export too many PV inverters      Source:GreentechSolar

Datang wind power unit raises $643m in Hong Kong IPO

Wind energy firm China Datang Corp Renewable Power raised US$643 million through its Hong Kong initial public offering, Bloomberg reported.

Zoomlion targets $2.12b Hong Kong listing

Changsha Zoomlion Heavy Industry Science and Technology Development (000157.SZ) plans to raise up to US$2.12 billion on the Hong Kong stock exchange.

Sina Launches Developer Fund for China’s Twitter by Sophie Beach

Sina, China’s biggest portal, has announced a two billion yuan (US$300 million) fund for developers to create applications for its hugely popular microblog service. From Reuters:

Empty Chairs On the Cover of Southern Metropolis Daily Interpreted as Nobel Tribute by Xiao Qiang

As has been reported, the term “empty chair” (空椅子) has become a banned word in Chinese cyberspace following Friday’s Nobel prize ceremony during which imprisoned Peace Prize laureate Liu Xiaobo was represented by his empty seat.

China’s Army of Graduates Is Struggling by Sophie Beach

The New York Times reports on China’s so-called Ant Tribes, or recent graduates who are struggling to get by:

Often the first from their families to finish even high school, ambitious graduates like Ms. Liu are part of an unprecedented wave of young people all around China who were supposed to move the country’s labor-dependent economy toward a white-collar future. In 1998, when Jiang Zemin, then the president, announced plans to bolster higher education, Chinese universities and colleges produced 830,000 graduates a year. Last May, that number was more than six million and rising.

BYD shares jump on plan to export to US

Shares of carmaker BYD spiked 2.4 per cent after the Wall Street Journal reported that the company will begin test marketing electric cars in the United States next year.

China fact of the day from Marginal Revolution by Tyler Cowen

“The money supply is too large,” said Andy Xie, an economist based in Shanghai who formerly worked at Morgan Stanley. “They increased the money supply to stimulate the economy. Now land prices have jumped 20 times in some places, 100 times in others. Inflation is broad-based. Go into a supermarket. Milk is more expensive in China than it is in the U.S.”

In Shanghai, where the average monthly wage is about $350, a gallon of milk now costs about $5.50.

The article is a good survey of some Johnny-come-lately China skeptics.

Only generalities in the article.The usual broad simplifications.

When Will China’s Internet Giants Open the Acquisition Wallet? (TCTV) by Sarah Lacy

The biggest difference between the Internet scenes in Silicon Valley and China this year? We’re all still asking when Facebook will go public, while Chinese companies are filing left and right. Part of this is an investor demand to get a chunk of that 400 million person strong and growing Chinese Internet market.

Careful about that Youku (YOKU) on your Shoe